Tue, Dec 5, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New Jersey Devils 6, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 49 | 110 | 113 | 632 |
| VAN | 213 | 07 | 313 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40NJDJesper BrattAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 8:24VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P1 9:51NJDErik HaulaAssists: Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P1 17:06NJDJack HughesAssists: Kevin Bahl · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P1 18:42NJDMichael McLeodAssists: Nathan Bastian, Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–1
- P1 19:40VANDakota JoshuaAssists: Conor Garland, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–2
- P2 19:26NJDLuke HughesPPAssists: Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 7:02VANBrock BoeserAssists: J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 13:58VANSam LaffertyAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 16:34VANNils HoglanderAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–5
- P3 19:26NJDJesper BrattGWGAssists: Nico Hischier, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.20 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:56NJDColin Miller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:55NJDErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:36VANConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:55NJDJohn Marino: Interference2 min
- P2 19:15VANDakota Joshua: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:37NJDErik Haula: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Toffoli – Hughes11:24
xG 1.29–0.42 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier13:00
xG 0.78–0.58 (57%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Lazar – Bastian – McLeod5:45
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Meier – Mercer – Holtz9:46
xG 0.07–0.53 (12%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Bahl14:38
xG 1.19–0.48 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 4–2
- Siegenthaler – Hughes3:34
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Nemec16:08
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Hoglander5:26
xG 0.51–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Hoglander – Aman5:41
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Pettersson – Mikheyev7:31
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland6:17
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Juulsen2:28
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Hronek6:32
xG 0.37–0.30 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Cole – Hughes2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).