Wed, Dec 6, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vegas Golden Knights 6, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 113 | 416 | 120 | 649 |
| STL | 311 | 010 | 08 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:03VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Nicolas Roy, Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:20STLJake NeighboursAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 10:33STLKevin HayesAssists: Torey Krug, Jordan Kyrou · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 17:11STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 9:42VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 11:51VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: William Karlsson, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 12:18VGKKeegan KolesarGWGAssists: Brayden McNabb, Kaedan Korczak · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P2 19:42VGKMichael AmadioPPAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Ivan Barbashev · Snap, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 19:48VGKWilliam KarlssonENAssists: Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.38 xG6–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:41STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P1 4:56VGKNicolas Roy: Interference2 min
- P1 13:21VGKZach Whitecloud: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:02STLRobert Thomas: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:25VGKJonathan Marchessault: Holding2 min
- P2 11:29STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:59STLSammy Blais: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 2:15STLBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:42STLAlexey Toropchenko: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:46STLNikita Alexandrov: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P3 10:54STLOskar Sundqvist: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy7:51
xG 1.40–0.10 (93%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Cotter4:43
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel7:31
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
- Stephenson – Amadio – Howden3:05
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Korczak9:10
xG 1.65–0.14 (92%)attempts 23–6goals 1–1
- Hague – Whitecloud7:32
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Hutton10:30
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Hayes – Kyrou8:00
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours7:46
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Blais – Toropchenko – Alexandrov4:56
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Saad – Sundqvist – Kapanen7:04
xG 0.21–1.48 (12%)attempts 4–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Parayko11:16
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Scandella – Perunovich6:37
xG 0.42–0.95 (31%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Faulk – Krug11:50
xG 0.34–1.02 (25%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).