Thu, Dec 7, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, New York Islanders 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 215 | 19 | 335 |
| NYI | 19 | 312 | 315 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00NYIPierre EngvallAssists: Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:56CBJEmil BemstromAssists: Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 10:11CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:30NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Hudson Fasching, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 18:51NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Scott Mayfield, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 19:19NYIKyle PalmieriPPGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 1:28CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Emil Bemstrom · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 5:33NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 11:31NYIBo HorvatAssists: Julien Gauthier · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–6
- P3 11:51NYIBo HorvatAssists: Mathew Barzal, Samuel Bolduc · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–7
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:07NYIBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:03CBJKirill Marchenko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:37CBJJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBemstrom – Johnson – Fantilli11:55
xG 0.47–0.22 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 3–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov11:41
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Texier9:00
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Danforth14:45
xG 0.77–1.08 (42%)attempts 17–17goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Jiricek3:55
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Werenski – Peeke2:00
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Werenski – Blankenburg13:52
xG 0.48–0.47 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal13:15
xG 1.49–0.43 (78%)attempts 28–15goals 4–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:30
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching10:22
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom11:00
xG 0.12–0.62 (16%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Bolduc14:11
xG 0.89–0.30 (75%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Reilly – Mayfield12:54
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 12–18goals 3–2
- Mayfield – Romanov2:48
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).