Fri, Dec 8, 2023·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 111 | 04 | 126 |
| FLA | 07 | 113 | 213 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:05PITReilly SmithAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Valtteri Puustinen · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 17:04FLAOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Anton Lundell, Carter Verhaeghe · Poke, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 6:10FLAEetu LuostarinenGWGAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:33FLAAleksander BarkovENAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:40FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:46FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:46PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:55PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:21FLAAnton Lundell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Crosby – Guentzel – O'Connor12:16
xG 0.89–0.88 (50%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Puustinen10:29
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Harkins – Gruden – Johnstone3:54
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Eller – Hinostroza9:44
xG 0.54–0.83 (40%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson19:00
xG 1.50–1.42 (51%)attempts 21–26goals 1–0
- Shea – Ludvig8:51
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Graves16:23
xG 0.37–1.13 (25%)attempts 9–30goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell5:10
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk6:18
xG 0.74–0.40 (65%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Lundell6:26
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart6:05
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov10:20
xG 0.82–0.27 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Montour – Mikkola15:20
xG 1.21–0.78 (61%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Forsling – Mikkola2:01
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).