Fri, Dec 8, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 3, Edmonton Oilers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 04 | 37 | 09 | 320 |
| EDM | 118 | 214 | 18 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:16EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 0:15MINMatt BoldyAssists: Brock Faber, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 0:41MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Matt Boldy, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 1:21EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 11:58MINConnor DewarAssists: Ryan Hartman, Brock Faber · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 18:30EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 1:32EDMEvan BouchardPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:36EDMDarnell Nurse: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:33MINJon Merrill: Holding2 min
- P2 17:35MINMats Zuccarello: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 0:41MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:53EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:33MINMatt Boldy: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00MINRyan Hartman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00EDMMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Duhaime – Dewar5:43
xG 0.57–0.11 (83%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Hartman – Kaprizov – Dewar2:58
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov3:03
xG 0.11–0.24 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Gaudreau6:28
xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Mermis2:10
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Mermis – Faber2:59
xG 0.15–0.08 (67%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber2:02
xG 0.01–0.05 (21%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:51
xG 1.29–0.25 (84%)attempts 22–9goals 2–1
- Janmark – Foegele – McLeod8:10
xG 0.71–0.18 (80%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Ryan – Hamblin4:10
xG 0.20–0.17 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Kane – Brown – Draisaitl10:47
xG 0.43–0.63 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard16:02
xG 1.00–0.36 (74%)attempts 20–13goals 2–1
- Kulak – Desharnais9:34
xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Ceci – Nurse16:39
xG 1.08–0.92 (54%)attempts 19–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).