Sat, Dec 9, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 39 | 18 | 210 | 627 |
| DAL | 16 | 08 | 06 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Brett Howden, Zach Whitecloud · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:36VGKZach WhitecloudGWGAssists: William Carrier, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 10:07DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jamie Benn, Jani Hakanpää · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 14:58VGKMark StoneAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 15:01VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 2:11VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: William Karlsson, Paul Cotter · Snap, 0.38 xG5–1
- P3 9:15VGKPaul CotterAssists: Brayden McNabb · Backhand, 0.08 xG6–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:35VGKNicolas Hague: Interference2 min
- P2 8:17VGKKeegan Kolesar: Interference2 min
- P2 16:17DALWyatt Johnston: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:14DALThomas Harley: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:50VGKBen Hutton: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dellandrea won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Cotter – Dorofeyev11:42
xG 0.87–0.25 (78%)attempts 8–17goals 2–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel9:36
xG 0.53–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy9:21
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Stephenson – Howden10:46
xG 0.52–0.60 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud13:21
xG 1.23–0.40 (76%)attempts 11–13goals 3–0
- McNabb – Korczak11:46
xG 0.56–0.15 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton16:21
xG 0.12–0.61 (16%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dadonov – Steel8:55
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Smith – Faksa – Dellandrea7:51
xG 0.12–0.43 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:14
xG 0.21–0.65 (24%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Robertson – Johnston11:51
xG 0.21–0.77 (22%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell8:15
xG 0.43–0.10 (82%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Heiskanen – Harley4:28
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Harley5:03
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).