Sat, Dec 9, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 314 | 112 | 537 |
| DET | 115 | 07 | 09 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57OTTClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.43 xG1–0
- P1 14:49DETPatrick KanePPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Alex Lyon · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:36OTTVladimir TarasenkoPPGWGAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 8:36OTTDominik KubalikAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 18:56OTTTim StützleAssists: Drake Batherson, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 16:35OTTJake SandersonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:27DETDavid Perron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 4:28OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:50OTTErik Brannstrom: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:47OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:50DETDavid Perron: Match penalty5 min
- P1 13:50OTTMathieu Joseph: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:50OTTParker Kelly: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:46DETMichael Rasmussen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:33DETJake Walman: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:45OTTRidly Greig: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:14OTTMathieu Joseph: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:14DETChristian Fischer: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:22DETMoritz Seider: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Joseph – Greig8:06
xG 0.61–0.20 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk10:23
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle9:13
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Chartier – Kelly – Smejkal2:13
xG 0.10–0.05 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Sanderson12:47
xG 0.98–0.12 (89%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Zub12:49
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Brannstrom10:08
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Kane – DeBrincat – Veleno9:41
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Fischer – Sprong – Rasmussen6:44
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Copp – Fabbri – Raymond7:45
xG 0.13–0.62 (18%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider9:48
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot8:23
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Holl – Maatta5:42
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).