Sat, Dec 9, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Los Angeles Kings 2, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 215 | 011 | 00 | 235 |
| NYI | 011 | 06 | 212 | 11 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:40LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 9:08LAKVladislav GavrikovAssists: Kevin Fiala, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 8:42NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mike Reilly, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 15:49NYIAnders LeeAssists: Scott Mayfield, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 0:13NYIJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Noah Dobson · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:25NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:04LAKAdrian Kempe: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:23NYIKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:51LAKAlex Laferriere: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:12NYIScott Mayfield: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 5:12NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:12LAKAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:53NYIMike Reilly: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:40LAKQuinton Byfield: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:08NYIJulien Gauthier: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 3:30LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGrundstrom – Dubois – Laferriere10:32
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:41
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Lewis – Lizotte – Kaliyev6:49
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore8:33
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Spence7:40
xG 0.11–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson15:47
xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Roy13:11
xG 0.46–0.66 (41%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching5:54
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal11:42
xG 0.67–0.60 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:38
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom7:43
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Dobson4:47
xG 0.42–0.09 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Reilly – Mayfield6:46
xG 0.35–0.13 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Romanov4:26
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).