Sat, Dec 9, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 212 | 210 | 534 |
| COL | 113 | 115 | 010 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:41PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier, Tyson Foerster · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 18:59COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Josh Manson, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 9:01PHIOwen TippettAssists: Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 11:17PHITravis SanheimGWGAssists: Morgan Frost, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 12:28COLJosh MansonAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 9:31PHITravis KonecnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–2
- P3 10:17PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Bobby Brink, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:52PHIOwen Tippett: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:03COLJoel Kiviranta: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:12PHITravis Konecny: Holding2 min
- P3 9:31COLNathan MacKinnon: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Couturier – Hathaway4:18
xG 0.54–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Frost – Farabee3:16
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Brink6:07
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Atkinson – Laughton – Farabee6:58
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Sanheim5:54
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York10:54
xG 0.44–0.09 (84%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Seeler – Walker8:18
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – O'Connor6:45
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Johansen – MacDermid2:12
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin3:37
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – Kiviranta5:28
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Manson – Toews3:34
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Makar – Byram4:01
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Johnson – Malinski10:31
xG 0.39–0.77 (33%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).