Sun, Dec 10, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 05 | 114 | 126 |
| EDM | 18 | 111 | 211 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:36EDMDerek RyanAssists: Sam Gagner, Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 14:20EDMEvan BouchardPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 4:23EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evander Kane · Snap, 0.25 xG0–3
- P3 4:53NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 16:52EDMEvander KaneENAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:25NJDNico Hischier: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:37EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:01EDMZach Hyman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:42NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P2 14:01NJDCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:43EDMMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:01EDMConnor Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Mercer – Holtz3:29
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Hughes – Holtz5:14
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lazar – Bastian – McLeod7:19
xG 0.05–0.27 (16%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Meier – McLeod – Mercer2:18
xG 0.02–0.36 (4%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHughes – Nemec6:01
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Siegenthaler – Marino3:57
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Nemec7:33
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:45
xG 0.94–0.04 (96%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Gagner – Ryan – Hamblin5:52
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – McDavid3:55
xG 0.43–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Janmark – Foegele – McLeod8:10
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:10
xG 1.13–0.20 (85%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais10:38
xG 1.00–0.14 (87%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Ceci – Nurse15:26
xG 0.75–1.35 (36%)attempts 9–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).