Sun, Dec 10, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 37 | 111 | 427 |
| CHI | 010 | 112 | 112 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:49CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Seth Jones, Connor Bedard · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 8:11WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Connor McMichael · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:50WSHDylan StromeAssists: Joel Edmundson, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 15:23WSHNic DowdGWGAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 15:58WSHNic DowdAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Beck Malenstyn · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 18:18CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Connor Bedard, Philipp Kurashev · Snap, 0.30 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:26CHINick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:11WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:15WSHBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:59WSHBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:59WSHMartin Fehérváry: Interference2 min
- P3 7:58CHINick Foligno: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:46CHIJoey Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:05WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:05WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:05WSHT.J. Oshie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:05WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome10:10
xG 0.68–0.12 (86%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Milano8:39
xG 0.35–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn8:33
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas7:55
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Edmundson11:07
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry10:42
xG 0.51–0.15 (78%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin14:31
xG 0.62–0.26 (70%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Entwistle – Johnson – Reichel6:37
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Johnson – Raddysh – Guttman7:56
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Kurashev – Bedard9:29
xG 0.29–0.69 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Foligno – Dickinson – Anderson9:41
xG 0.04–0.51 (8%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Phillips12:13
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Jones – Vlasic3:58
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Zaitsev – Phillips2:07
xG 0.01–0.06 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).