Sun, Dec 10, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Nashville Predators 2, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 115 | 06 | 232 |
| MTL | 09 | 114 | 014 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41NSHColton SissonsPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 7:03NSHColton SissonsGWGAssists: Dante Fabbro, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 19:25MTLJake EvansUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:11NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:58MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min
- P1 8:29NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:55MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:20MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:49NSHLuke Evangelista: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:26NSHColton Sissons: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:26MTLBrendan Gallagher: Elbowing2 min
- P2 11:21NSHLuke Evangelista: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P3 8:53NSHAlexandre Carrier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Parssinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Sherwood – Evangelista5:38
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg7:32
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Parssinen8:14
xG 0.63–1.12 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Smith4:01
xG 0.03–0.55 (5%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Barrie2:43
xG 0.11–0.03 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi2:01
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Barrie – Lauzon8:37
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Dvorak – Ylonen6:06
xG 0.87–0.07 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Dvorak3:41
xG 0.79–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský9:55
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Armia – Stephens – Pezzetta5:10
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Struble10:41
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Guhle2:50
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson13:27
xG 0.98–0.89 (53%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).