Sun, Dec 10, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Minnesota Wild 3, Seattle Kraken 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 08 | 212 | 326 |
| SEA | 09 | 07 | 08 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14MINMatt BoldyGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P3 12:34MINMarco RossiAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P3 19:56MINJoel Eriksson EkENAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:25MINAlex Goligoski: Holding2 min
- P1 16:31MINBrandon Duhaime: Holding2 min
- P2 4:34SEAJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:26MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P3 5:58SEAVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Duhaime – Dewar8:21
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi8:29
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy10:20
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Gaudreau6:07
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Spurgeon9:58
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Merrill6:21
xG 0.41–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber17:55
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 20–23goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Shore – Bellemare – Yamamoto6:24
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Wennberg – McCann – Tanev9:25
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Eberle – Kartye – Beniers11:06
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen8:29
xG 0.32–0.71 (31%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Evans12:03
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:18
xG 0.69–0.99 (41%)attempts 20–20goals 0–2
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:42
xG 0.10–0.65 (13%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).