Sun, Dec 10, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 011 | 316 | 02 | 0 | 438 |
| VGK | 08 | 210 | 28 | 01 | 2 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29SJSMario FerraroAssists: Kyle Burroughs, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 5:34VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 15:44VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Mark Stone · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 1:43VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Jack Eichel, Kaedan Korczak · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 3:56SJSMike HoffmanPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Kaapo Kahkonen · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 9:23VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Zach Whitecloud · Snap, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 16:15SJSCalen AddisonAssists: Justin Bailey, Filip Zadina · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 19:21SJSMike HoffmanAssists: Tomas Hertl, Alexander Barabanov · Snap, 0.94 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. VGK Nicolas Roy stopped
- 2. SJS Kevin Labanc stopped
- 3. VGK Jack Eichel scored
- 4. SJS Mikael Granlund stopped
- 5. VGK Jonathan Marchessault scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:28SJSKyle Burroughs: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:56SJSNico Sturm: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:39VGKIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:31SJSHenry Thrun: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:59VGKZach Whitecloud: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:49VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:27SJSJacob MacDonald: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Labanc – Zadina2:20
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund2:52
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Bailey – Sturm2:52
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hertl – Labanc – Barabanov6:36
xG 0.10–0.30 (26%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Ferraro10:02
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Rutta – Okhotiuk9:39
xG 0.27–0.49 (35%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Addison – Thrun8:52
xG 0.31–0.71 (30%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Stephenson – Howden8:16
xG 0.76–0.03 (96%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel10:12
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Cotter7:00
xG 0.35–0.18 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy9:37
xG 0.16–0.17 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud14:15
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Hutton10:11
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- McNabb – Korczak16:19
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).