Tue, Dec 12, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 114 | 310 | 04 | 428 |
| OTT | 111 | 08 | 013 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 18:49CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Brady Skjei, Jack Drury · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:18CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 13:39CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 17:19CARSebastian AhoAssists: Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.16 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 14:02CARMartin Necas: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:16OTTRidly Greig: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:19CARMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:00CARBrady Skjei: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:03OTTArtem Zub: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:01OTTRidly Greig: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:01CARStefan Noesen: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:03CARMartin Necas: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:32OTTRidly Greig: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:32CARDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:39CARPyotr Kochetkov: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P3 15:39OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Necas – Drury2:43
xG 0.14–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Noesen – Aho – Jarvis6:44
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook6:03
xG 0.10–0.32 (24%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi10:59
xG 0.57–0.93 (38%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce10:06
xG 0.86–0.76 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo2:30
xG 0.10–0.00 (97%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield10:35
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk7:47
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Joseph – Kelly – Greig2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Joseph – Greig8:11
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle10:33
xG 0.98–1.04 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brannstrom10:58
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Zub11:50
xG 0.70–0.54 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker2:28
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).