Tue, Dec 12, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 6, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 212 | 112 | 38 | 632 |
| STL | 19 | 319 | 09 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56STLBrandon SaadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 13:33DETJake WalmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 15:31DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Jeff Petry, Daniel Sprong · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 1:40STLKevin HayesAssists: Nick Leddy, Colton Parayko · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 2:11STLKevin HayesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 9:47DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Michael Rasmussen · Snap, 0.25 xG3–3
- P2 16:53STLMarco ScandellaSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 0:48DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Joseph Veleno, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.20 xG4–4
- P3 6:38DETRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Lucas Raymond, Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–4
- P3 18:21DETMichael RasmussenENAssists: Joseph Veleno · Backhand, 0.78 xG6–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:59DETShayne Gostisbehere: Interference2 min
- P1 10:13STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:19DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:43STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:26STLScott Perunovich: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:15STLPavel Buchnevich: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:01STLColton Parayko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:35DETAndrew Copp: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Buchnevich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSprong – Rasmussen – Berggren2:11
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Sprong – Rasmussen – Raymond2:16
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Fischer – Czarnik – Berggren3:04
xG 0.20–0.22 (49%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- Copp – Fabbri – Raymond7:51
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Maatta4:51
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot8:06
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Walman2:22
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Thomas – Neighbours11:59
xG 0.58–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hayes – Sundqvist8:28
xG 0.66–0.14 (82%)attempts 12–3goals 2–0
- Saad – Buchnevich – Kapanen11:13
xG 0.83–0.60 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 1–2
- Blais – Toropchenko – McGing3:40
xG 0.13–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug12:34
xG 1.13–0.65 (64%)attempts 17–8goals 1–2
- Leddy – Parayko17:04
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 22–12goals 2–1
- Scandella – Perunovich6:10
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).