Tue, Dec 12, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Florida Panthers 0, Seattle Kraken 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 07 | 08 | 024 |
| SEA | 03 | 17 | 313 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:06SEAKailer YamamotoGWGAssists: Will Borgen, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 5:59SEAPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Ryker Evans, Kailer Yamamoto · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 9:13SEAAlexander WennbergAssists: Will Borgen, Tye Kartye · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 16:09SEAEeli TolvanenENAssists: Vince Dunn · Bat, 0.66 xG0–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:31SEAAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:25SEAVince Dunn: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:37SEABrian Dumoulin: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:46FLARyan Lomberg: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart12:01
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Lundell2:12
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell4:15
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk5:25
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling12:41
xG 0.62–0.29 (68%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Mikkola – Balinskis3:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling3:45
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestShore – Bellemare – Yamamoto6:56
xG 0.60–0.09 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:54
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers8:26
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Kartye – Beniers2:23
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Evans15:30
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:19
xG 0.46–0.33 (59%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:01
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 7–18goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).