Tue, Dec 12, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Calgary Flames 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 115 | 24 | 112 | 00 | 431 |
| VGK | 114 | 115 | 29 | 11 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:27CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 13:33VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 2:37CGYNazem KadriAssists: Connor Zary, Martin Pospisil · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 5:20VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 17:58CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 6:00VGKMark StonePPAssists: William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 16:14VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 19:00CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Noah Hanifin, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 1:11VGKMark StoneGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:13CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:32VGKJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:19CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:19CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:27CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:10VGKBrett Howden: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Zary10:52
xG 0.87–0.06 (94%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau10:37
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka4:56
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich9:42
xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – DeSimone12:48
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson17:33
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Weegar – Oesterle16:03
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Amadio – Cotter8:19
xG 0.60–0.02 (97%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:50
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Stephenson2:01
xG 0.11–0.01 (94%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy8:31
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud17:58
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Pietrangelo – McNabb16:13
xG 0.34–0.48 (42%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Hutton – Pachal9:07
xG 0.25–0.67 (27%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).