Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 13, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Montréal Canadiens

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.

MTL winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT11121503014430
MTL31507011093342

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:24MTLDavid SavardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:21MTLJayden StrubleAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Jesse Ylonen · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
  3. P1 13:48PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P1 15:20MTLSean MonahanPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–3
  5. P2 5:36PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.14 xG2–3
  6. P2 11:02PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. MTL Nick Suzuki scored
  2. 2. PIT Kris Letang scored
  3. 3. MTL Cole Caufield scored
  4. 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
  5. 5. MTL Jesse Ylonen stopped
  6. 6. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
  7. 7. MTL Juraj Slafkovský stopped
  8. 8. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
  9. 9. MTL Joel Armia stopped
  10. 10. PIT Reilly Smith stopped
  11. 11. MTL Christian Dvorak stopped
  12. 12. PIT Erik Karlsson stopped
  13. 13. MTL Sean Monahan scored
  14. 14. PIT Lars Eller scored
  15. 15. MTL Mike Matheson stopped
  16. 16. PIT Jeff Carter stopped
  17. 17. MTL Michael Pezzetta stopped
  18. 18. PIT Valtteri Puustinen stopped
  19. 19. MTL Jake Evans stopped
  20. 20. PIT Radim Zohorna stopped
  21. 21. MTL Brendan Gallagher stopped
  22. 22. PIT Vinnie Hinostroza stopped
  23. 23. MTL Josh Anderson stopped
  24. 24. PIT Jansen Harkins scored
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 14:53PITMarcus Pettersson: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P2 2:27MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Interference2 min
  3. P2 4:26MTLMichael Pezzetta: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  4. P2 10:15MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P3 3:00PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 16:58PITDrew O'Connor: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. OT 1:04PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
46% to win54% to win
← PIT attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Suzuki
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITMTL
30Shots on goal42
2.9Expected goals5.9
62Shot attempts73
29Faceoffs won31
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
32Hits19
15Blocked shots14
14Giveaways15
8Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestEller – Hinostroza – Zohorna3:35

    xG 0.40–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  2. Malkin – Smith – Puustinen11:04

    xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0

  3. Eller – O'Connor – Zohorna5:38

    xG 0.24–0.13 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

  4. Carter – Harkins – Gruden4:00

    xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestLetang – Karlsson2:45

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  2. Karlsson – Graves2:22

    xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  3. Letang – Pettersson2:52

    xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský15:59

    xG 1.37–0.24 (85%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0

  2. Anderson – Monahan – Evans12:59

    xG 1.67–0.89 (65%)attempts 20–18goals 0–1

  3. Gallagher – Armia – Dvorak9:40

    xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0

  4. Stephens – Pezzetta – Ylonen5:04

    xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSavard – Matheson17:07

    xG 2.09–0.28 (88%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0

  2. Matheson – Struble2:01

    xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  3. Kovacevic – Struble11:01

    xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 5.9 xGPIT 2.9 xG
0123456P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #278 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.06 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 13% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.

MTL winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).