Wed, Dec 13, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Anaheim Ducks 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 02 | 29 | 113 | 324 |
| NYI | 013 | 213 | 29 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:40NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Brock Nelson, Hudson Fasching · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 6:32NYICasey CizikasAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 7:47ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 13:29ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Urho Vaakanainen, Brett Leason · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 5:07ANASam CarrickUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 7:46NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson · Slap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 18:27NYISimon HolmstromSHGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:40ANACam Fowler: Interference2 min
- P2 7:13NYISamuel Bolduc: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:14ANALeo Carlsson: Broken stick2 min
- P3 7:25ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:00ANAJakob Silfverberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:15NYIRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Terry – Carlsson13:36
xG 0.47–0.22 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Jones10:09
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Carrick – Strome – Vatrano2:02
xG 0.01–0.13 (7%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carrick – McGinn – Johnston7:21
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 3–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Vaakanainen13:53
xG 0.56–0.20 (73%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov15:11
xG 0.12–0.53 (18%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Fowler – LaCombe16:41
xG 0.33–0.87 (28%)attempts 8–22goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom7:50
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching10:35
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal11:46
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall12:02
xG 0.13–0.57 (19%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov19:36
xG 0.71–0.28 (72%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Bolduc11:32
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Reilly – Aho15:54
xG 0.56–0.72 (44%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).