Wed, Dec 13, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Winnipeg Jets 5, Los Angeles Kings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 313 | 210 | 529 |
| LAK | 211 | 015 | 08 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:36LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Quinton Byfield · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 12:29LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 6:08WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 13:19WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 15:00WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 2:30WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 19:58WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:54WPGNate Schmidt: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:44LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:06WPGNate Schmidt: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:03WPGNino Niederreiter: Holding2 min
- P2 19:51LAKQuinton Byfield: Holding2 min
- P3 7:51WPGBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Ehlers – Vilardi10:05
xG 0.83–0.51 (62%)attempts 19–11goals 4–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti10:30
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:38
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron – Gustafsson5:33
xG 0.01–0.17 (4%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey14:38
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
- Dillon – Pionk12:27
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Samberg10:16
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Moore9:59
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:40
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Lewis – Anderson-Dolan – Lizotte7:57
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Dubois – Laferriere8:10
xG 0.13–0.56 (18%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson13:14
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Roy – Anderson2:50
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Englund – Spence11:07
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).