Thu, Dec 14, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 211 | 18 | 04 | 1 | 330 |
| PHI | 02 | 114 | 213 | 03 | 2 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:14PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Marc Staal, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 3:00WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 15:29WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Dylan Strome, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 5:25PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Ryan Poehling · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 9:05WSHDylan StromeAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 17:01PHIOwen TippettAssists: Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Sean Couturier scored
- 2. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. PHI Tyson Foerster stopped
- 4. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 5. PHI Bobby Brink scored
- 6. WSH Anthony Mantha stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:07WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding2 min
- P1 9:24PHIGarnet Hathaway: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 17:52PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:08WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:47WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:35PHIScott Laughton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:07WSHJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:21WSHConnor McMichael: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McMichael – Protas8:17
xG 0.56–0.45 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Oshie – Dowd – Snively3:12
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn5:32
xG 0.02–0.05 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Dowd – Malenstyn2:54
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Edmundson11:03
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin10:23
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry4:23
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Poehling – Farabee5:46
xG 0.75–0.11 (87%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Tippett – Frost – Brink7:29
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Poehling4:44
xG 0.02–0.04 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Laughton – Farabee4:24
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Walker2:41
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Ristolainen11:11
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York15:28
xG 0.61–0.53 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).