Thu, Dec 14, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 117 | 110 | 02 | 1 | 237 |
| MIN | 110 | 010 | 111 | 01 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:42MINMatt BoldyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 13:18CGYYegor SharangovichPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Connor Zary · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 4:13CGYBlake ColemanSHAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–1
- P3 4:58MINMarco RossiAssists: Alex Goligoski, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. CGY Yegor Sharangovich scored
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 4. CGY Elias Lindholm stopped
- 5. MIN Frederick Gaudreau stopped
- 6. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 7. MIN Matt Boldy scored
- 8. CGY Nazem Kadri stopped
Penalties (8)
- P2 7:57MINMarco Rossi: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:25MINPatrick Maroon: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:26MINPatrick Maroon: Interference2 min
- P2 19:26CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:26MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:57CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:46CGYJordan Oesterle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich11:58
xG 0.98–0.37 (73%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil2:40
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka5:46
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau8:47
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – DeSimone10:11
xG 0.69–0.55 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Weegar – Oesterle15:55
xG 0.76–0.71 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson16:47
xG 0.29–0.88 (25%)attempts 13–23goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Zuccarello – Rossi10:58
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Gaudreau7:09
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy12:41
xG 0.60–0.82 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Hartman – Duhaime – Dewar7:29
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Bogosian11:07
xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Merrill – Mermis11:32
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Mermis2:03
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).