Fri, Dec 15, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Nashville Predators 6, Carolina Hurricanes 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 314 | 18 | 11 | 630 |
| CAR | 211 | 37 | 013 | 00 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18NSHJuuso ParssinenAssists: Tommy Novak · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:23CARStefan NoesenPPAssists: Jack Drury, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 12:13CARTony DeAngeloPPAssists: Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 3:47NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Gustav Nyquist · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 4:50CARJalen ChatfieldAssists: Michael Bunting, Jordan Martinook · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 5:09CARSebastian AhoAssists: Seth Jarvis, Stefan Noesen · Slap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 9:26NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 9:51CARMartin NecasUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG3–5
- P2 10:18NSHTyson BarrieAssists: Cole Smith, Philip Tomasino · Snap, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 10:57NSHJeremy LauzonAssists: Luke Evangelista, Juuso Parssinen · Snap, 0.12 xG5–5
- OT 0:33NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.20 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:37NSHAlexandre Carrier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:05NSHYakov Trenin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:10CARBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P2 8:41CARSeth Jarvis: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 15:57CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:01NSHLuke Evangelista: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Glass10:05
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Smith8:47
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Novak – Parssinen – Evangelista9:26
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:56
xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 9–22goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi17:14
xG 1.51–0.10 (94%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Lauzon – Carrier15:06
xG 0.77–1.00 (44%)attempts 9–23goals 1–2
- Schenn – Barrie14:03
xG 0.19–0.99 (16%)attempts 8–20goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook13:26
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 21–5goals 0–1
- Noesen – Bunting – Kotkaniemi2:20
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi4:28
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Necas – Drury6:50
xG 0.27–0.56 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin16:02
xG 0.86–0.11 (88%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield10:50
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce18:13
xG 0.63–1.52 (29%)attempts 19–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).