Sat, Dec 16, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New Jersey Devils 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 28 | 213 | 29 | 630 |
| CBJ | 05 | 211 | 110 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47NJDJack HughesAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 16:21NJDErik HaulaAssists: Dawson Mercer, Alexander Holtz · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 0:17CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 0:50NJDTyler ToffoliAssists: Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 8:38CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Andrew Peeke, Dmitri Voronkov · Tip-in, 0.00 xG3–2
- P2 14:54NJDJack HughesPPGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 2:50NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 18:57CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Adam Fantilli, David Jiricek · Snap, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 19:12NJDJack HughesENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:25NJDMichael McLeod: Interference2 min
- P1 18:24NJDTyler Toffoli: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 5:47CBJSean Kuraly: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:52NJDAkira Schmid: Goalie participation beyond center2 min
- P2 13:52CBJErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:49CBJZach Werenski: Holding2 min
- P3 0:34NJDColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:59NJDTimo Meier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Mercer
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Mercer – Holtz8:18
xG 0.74–0.13 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Lazar – Bastian – McLeod9:16
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Palat – Meier – Hischier9:17
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Bratt – Hughes9:56
xG 0.39–0.67 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Nemec13:47
xG 0.99–0.52 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Marino – Bahl11:50
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Miller – Hughes14:30
xG 0.54–0.89 (38%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov10:59
xG 0.76–0.65 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Fantilli2:43
xG 0.06–0.00 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Danforth – Texier3:31
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Danforth – Fantilli7:02
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Blankenburg7:16
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Jiricek – Blankenburg6:01
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Provorov – Peeke14:42
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).