Sat, Dec 16, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 3, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 06 | 317 | 333 |
| MTL | 015 | 421 | 15 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:45MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Kaiden Guhle · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 10:35MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Justin Barron, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 19:06MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Sean Monahan, Justin Barron · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 19:21MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 2:07NYIBrock NelsonSHAssists: Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 3:43NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 14:06NYIBo HorvatAssists: Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 19:40MTLChristian DvorakENAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:05MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:47NYIBrock Nelson: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:37NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal14:34
xG 1.09–0.69 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall10:32
xG 0.64–0.68 (49%)attempts 9–14goals 1–2
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching7:58
xG 0.01–0.27 (5%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom7:58
xG 0.12–0.39 (24%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Aho16:44
xG 1.87–0.96 (66%)attempts 26–19goals 0–2
- Aho – Dobson2:51
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov15:25
xG 0.60–0.86 (41%)attempts 17–19goals 1–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:03
xG 0.97–0.17 (85%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Stephens – Pezzetta – Ylonen7:01
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Anderson – Monahan – Evans12:35
xG 0.79–0.73 (52%)attempts 20–16goals 2–1
- Gallagher – Armia – Dvorak10:43
xG 0.54–1.42 (28%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Struble13:46
xG 0.66–0.12 (85%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson18:37
xG 0.85–0.77 (53%)attempts 18–17goals 1–2
- Guhle – Barron14:59
xG 0.88–2.10 (30%)attempts 19–23goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).