Sat, Dec 16, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 0, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 011 | 015 | 032 |
| PHI | 113 | 010 | 011 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:21PHICam YorkGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Tyson Foerster · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:28DETDaniel Sprong: Holding2 min
- P2 3:52PHISean Walker: Holding2 min
- P2 6:50DETChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:01PHIEgor Zamula: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:05PHISean Walker: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:44DETShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Fabbri – Sprong8:34
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Veleno – Raymond9:07
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – Rasmussen10:05
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Fischer – Czarnik – Kostin5:14
xG 0.03–0.41 (7%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere15:06
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Petry – Seider2:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot13:58
xG 0.53–0.57 (48%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Foerster10:33
xG 0.83–0.11 (88%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Tippett – Frost – Brink8:11
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Laughton – Hathaway8:23
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Poehling – Farabee8:11
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – York14:53
xG 0.77–0.31 (71%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Seeler – Walker14:08
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Staal – Zamula13:28
xG 0.50–0.69 (42%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).