Sat, Dec 16, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 2, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 07 | 219 | 232 |
| WPG | 26 | 19 | 310 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:56WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 15:38WPGVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Alex Iafallo, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 8:43WPGAlex IafalloGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 2:07COLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 3:40WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 8:48WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Mason Appleton · Slap, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 10:41COLJack JohnsonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 17:57WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:25COLJosh Manson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 16:05WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:08COLDevon Toews: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:42WPGJosh Morrissey: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:46WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 13:25WPGAdam Lowry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor7:22
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen14:21
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Johansen – Drouin – Meyers7:22
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta5:47
xG 0.09–0.52 (15%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Jones4:27
xG 0.13–0.15 (45%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Byram – Malinski9:11
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Jones – Malinski3:46
xG 0.00–0.12 (2%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Ehlers – Vilardi10:53
xG 1.09–0.23 (83%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron – Gustafsson6:47
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti9:00
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:15
xG 0.08–0.25 (25%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:15
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 11–10goals 3–1
- Dillon – Pionk15:16
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Samberg9:55
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).