Sat, Dec 16, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 113 | 05 | 122 |
| NSH | 18 | 16 | 19 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03NSHColton SissonsPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:16WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P2 13:26NSHPhilip TomasinoGWGAssists: Cole Smith · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 3:41NSHYakov TreninAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Michael McCarron · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:15WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 3:23NSHCole Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:07NSHRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:36WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:45NSHAlexandre Carrier: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:23NSHCody Glass: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:47WSHDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome11:23
xG 0.62–0.44 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas9:22
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Snively8:46
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn6:45
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Fehérváry7:11
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:09
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry6:12
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Tomasino – Smith7:11
xG 0.34–0.14 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Novak – Parssinen – Evangelista7:53
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:08
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Glass7:14
xG 0.04–0.10 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Carrier14:22
xG 0.80–0.47 (63%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Schenn – Barrie11:46
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi15:55
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).