Sat, Dec 16, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Calgary Flames 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 010 | 217 | 233 |
| CGY | 08 | 312 | 16 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:30CGYA.J. GreerAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 6:17CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Blake Coleman · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 7:00CGYYegor SharangovichGWGAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 4:10TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.41 xG1–3
- P3 5:40TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 11:42CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Jordan Oesterle · Snap, 0.15 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:37TBLMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:47CGYDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 4:47TBLTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:25CGYRasmus Andersson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:46TBLNick Perbix: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:46CGYConnor Zary: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Jeannot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel7:17
xG 0.37–0.15 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Paul – Point5:04
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Watson – Glendening – Motte4:14
xG 0.02–0.00 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Jeannot3:57
xG 0.04–0.03 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Sergachev6:37
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- de Haan – Perbix5:23
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- de Haan – Cernak2:10
xG 0.05–0.04 (52%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Huberdeau10:43
xG 0.62–0.26 (70%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary10:28
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka7:17
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich13:08
xG 0.39–1.03 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – DeSimone9:59
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson19:25
xG 0.91–1.11 (45%)attempts 20–22goals 1–1
- Weegar – Oesterle17:50
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).