Sat, Dec 16, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Florida Panthers 5, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 315 | 114 | 110 | 539 |
| EDM | 012 | 114 | 013 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:33FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Bennett, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 18:58FLABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 19:27FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Sam Reinhart, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 8:08EDMZach HymanAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 16:01FLASam BennettPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Sergei Bobrovsky · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 0:21FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:47FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:11EDMMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:01EDMBrett Kulak: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 15:01FLAAleksander Barkov: Holding2 min
- P3 4:21FLABrandon Montour: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 4:21FLANick Cousins: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 14:14EDMSam Gagner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk9:57
xG 0.83–0.61 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 3–0
- Cousins – Stenlund – Luostarinen9:17
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Lomberg – Lockwood8:08
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:13
xG 0.38–0.82 (31%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Forsling12:35
xG 0.78–0.60 (57%)attempts 16–14goals 3–1
- Montour – Mikkola16:28
xG 0.85–0.74 (54%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Mahura10:33
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:21
xG 1.09–0.45 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
- Gagner – Ryan – Hamblin2:57
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – McDavid2:05
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Brown – McLeod7:55
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard18:17
xG 1.01–0.58 (64%)attempts 22–14goals 1–2
- Kulak – Desharnais11:13
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse15:08
xG 0.52–1.02 (34%)attempts 12–20goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).