Sun, Dec 17, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Anaheim Ducks 5, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 04 | 211 | 313 | 528 |
| NJD | 014 | 15 | 010 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:46ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:17ANAAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 19:16NJDMichael McLeodAssists: Curtis Lazar, Nathan Bastian · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 4:14ANAAlex KillornAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 9:57ANATroy TerryAssists: Alex Killorn, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 14:12ANAAdam HenriqueENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–1
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:58NJDKevin Bahl: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:08ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:08NJDKevin Bahl: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:17ANATroy Terry: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:16ANAAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P1 19:58NJDJesper Bratt: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:39NJDJack Hughes: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:55NJDColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:55ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:55ANARoss Johnston: Abusive language10 min
- P2 15:00NJDJack Hughes: Interference2 min
- P2 15:04ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:38ANARoss Johnston: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:49NJDTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:21ANAFrank Vatrano: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:21NJDNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:21ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Jones – Groulx9:33
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Johnston4:12
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Vatrano – Leason8:33
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Killorn – Strome – Terry8:41
xG 0.34–0.74 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Mintyukov11:35
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Gudas – Vaakanainen12:55
xG 0.54–0.45 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Fowler – LaCombe11:25
xG 0.59–1.41 (30%)attempts 5–18goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestLazar – Bastian – McLeod7:00
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Palat – Meier – Hischier4:38
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – Hughes7:54
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Mercer – Holtz3:47
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Nemec10:02
xG 0.79–0.38 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Marino – Bahl10:24
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Hughes – Nemec4:21
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).