Sun, Dec 17, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 2, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 17 | 113 | 227 |
| COL | 315 | 16 | 28 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:18COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:15COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 18:20COLMiles WoodGWGAssists: Ross Colton, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 3:44COLNathan MacKinnonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 9:01SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Alexander Barabanov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 9:01COLRyan JohansenAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Caleb Jones · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–5
- P3 10:45SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: William Eklund, Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 15:11COLNathan MacKinnonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:47SJSJacob MacDonald: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 2:47SJSJacob MacDonald: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 10:37SJSMario Ferraro: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:37SJSMario Ferraro: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:37COLKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:53COLMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:20SJSCalen Addison: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:13COLMiles Wood: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:47COLCaleb Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:38COLNathan MacKinnon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:33COLJack Johnson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33COLRyan Johansen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:33SJSNikita Okhotiuk: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Bailey – Eklund8:06
xG 0.34–0.21 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Barabanov9:18
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Kunin – Studnicka7:39
xG 0.17–0.95 (15%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ferraro – Thrun2:14
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Rutta – Thrun2:17
xG 0.02–0.08 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Ferraro11:57
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen13:29
xG 1.27–0.28 (82%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Johansen – O'Connor8:21
xG 0.83–0.40 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Wood – Drouin – Colton9:40
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Kiviranta6:47
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Malinski5:51
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Toews – Byram2:10
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Manson – Toews9:50
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).