Sun, Dec 17, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Ottawa Senators 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 210 | 05 | 110 | 325 |
| VGK | 29 | 315 | 17 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:25OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 10:55OTTRidly GreigPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 13:32VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Brett Howden, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 9:53VGKNicolas RoyPPAssists: Ben Hutton · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 11:31VGKChandler StephensonSHGWGAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–4
- P2 19:48VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Nicolas Hague, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 5:43VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–6
- P3 18:39OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Drake Batherson, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:25VGKIvan Barbashev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 9:38VGKNicolas Hague: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:52OTTTravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:19OTTErik Brannstrom: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:26OTTZack MacEwen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:28VGKNicolas Roy: Holding2 min
- P2 14:48VGKMichael Amadio: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:56VGKBen Hutton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:13OTTRidly Greig: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:37OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Kubalik – Norris9:02
xG 0.55–0.01 (99%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Crookshank – Smejkal3:34
xG 0.11–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Crookshank – Greig – Smejkal2:27
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- MacEwen – Kelly – Greig3:15
xG 0.03–0.25 (11%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brannstrom2:09
xG 0.21–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Zub2:03
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker9:24
xG 0.51–0.59 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Amadio – Kolesar5:11
xG 0.75–0.06 (92%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel11:18
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Roy – Cotter3:43
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Cotter3:49
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hutton4:51
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Hague – Whitecloud14:06
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo8:08
xG 0.18–0.14 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).