Mon, Dec 18, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Minnesota Wild 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 28 | 111 | 327 |
| PIT | 113 | 27 | 110 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:39PITReilly SmithAssists: Valtteri Puustinen, Marcus Pettersson · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 0:36PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 3:34PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Valtteri Puustinen, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 15:06MINRyan HartmanAssists: Brock Faber, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 17:30MINJake MiddletonAssists: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 5:33MINVinni LettieriAssists: Jon Merrill, Daemon Hunt · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 6:20PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 18:47MINZach Bogosian: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 5:42MINRyan Hartman: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:05PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
- P2 12:18PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:52PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:52MINAlex Goligoski: Holding2 min
- P2 19:25MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference2 min
- P3 5:45MINKirill Kaprizov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:27PITRadim Zohorna: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:27MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P3 12:21MINConnor Dewar: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy9:46
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Gaudreau6:01
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Rossi8:13
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Maroon – Foligno – Rossi2:17
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Hunt11:03
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian11:16
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 14–5goals 0–2
- Middleton – Faber15:18
xG 0.24–0.50 (32%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Harkins – Acciari7:48
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – Puustinen7:54
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 6–12goals 2–1
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel11:30
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Eller – O'Connor – Zohorna6:06
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Ludvig5:33
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson15:55
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 17–16goals 2–1
- Karlsson – Graves15:19
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 6–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).