Mon, Dec 18, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 214 | 05 | 12 | 326 |
| WPG | 06 | 111 | 115 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:57MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Mike Matheson, Jake Evans · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 15:04MTLChristian DvorakPPAssists: Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 19:04WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Josh Morrissey, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 12:24WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 1:09MTLJustin BarronPPGWGAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:19MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:31WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:04WPGNino Niederreiter: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 0:45MTLJustin Barron: Holding2 min
- P3 19:33WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 0:49WPGAdam Lowry: Cross checking2 min
- OT 0:49MTLMike Matheson: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Gallagher – Armia – Dvorak12:00
xG 0.28–0.27 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Anderson – Monahan – Evans12:34
xG 0.50–0.54 (48%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:54
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Stephens – Pezzetta – Ylonen5:08
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Barron15:59
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson18:33
xG 0.62–0.63 (50%)attempts 17–22goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Struble9:22
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJonsson-Fjallby – Barron – Gustafsson5:36
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Vilardi15:42
xG 0.85–0.58 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti8:52
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:07
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg8:34
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk12:51
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey17:05
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).