Tue, Dec 19, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Minnesota Wild 4, Boston Bruins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 07 | 212 | 12 | 430 |
| BOS | 27 | 016 | 118 | 02 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:44MINMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 11:29BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: John Beecher · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:59BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 13:12MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Jake Middleton, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 15:10MINRyan HartmanAssists: Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 18:54BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Morgan Geekie, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 2:54MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:14BOSJake DeBrusk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:48BOSJakub Lauko: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:48MINConnor Dewar: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:47MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:47BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:07MINPatrick Maroon: Instigator2 min
- P2 6:07BOSParker Wotherspoon: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:07MINPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:07MINPatrick Maroon: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 5:20MINZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:29MINAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy13:50
xG 0.84–0.33 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Rossi7:12
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Gaudreau2:41
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lettieri – Dewar3:02
xG 0.08–0.32 (20%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber19:11
xG 1.16–0.93 (55%)attempts 23–21goals 2–0
- Merrill – Hunt9:46
xG 0.50–0.73 (41%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian15:26
xG 0.43–0.68 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Pastrnak – Zacha11:28
xG 0.88–0.36 (71%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Steen – Lauko – Beecher5:35
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie8:24
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Coyle – Heinen – DeBrusk8:36
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlo – Wotherspoon2:29
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Wotherspoon – McAvoy3:47
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Grzelcyk2:21
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).