Tue, Dec 19, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 113 | 010 | 210 | 333 |
| CAR | 112 | 311 | 216 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:27CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Brady Skjei, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:15VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Brayden McNabb, Brett Howden · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 4:36CARJordan StaalAssists: Jesper Fast, Jordan Martinook · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:11CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 12:39CARMichael BuntingPPGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.30 xG1–4
- P3 0:10CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 4:44CARBrady SkjeiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
- P3 18:36VGKJack EichelAssists: Nicolas Hague, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–6
- P3 19:29VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Brett Howden, Michael Amadio · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:36CARMichael Bunting: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:04VGKPaul Cotter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:42CARJesper Fast: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:47VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:21CARBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P3 0:04VGKNicolas Roy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:27CARMartin Necas: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Amadio – Howden10:02
xG 1.13–0.70 (62%)attempts 12–21goals 2–1
- Karlsson – Roy – Cotter8:41
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel9:59
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 4–16goals 1–2
- Marchessault – Stephenson – Dorofeyev11:33
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo15:28
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- McNabb – Hutton15:28
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 12–20goals 2–1
- Hague – Whitecloud16:27
xG 0.89–1.02 (47%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Aho – Jarvis10:00
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook8:52
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Bunting – Necas – Kotkaniemi11:37
xG 0.83–0.98 (46%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Teravainen – Svechnikov – Drury11:31
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin14:38
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce15:53
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield16:15
xG 0.89–1.22 (42%)attempts 23–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).