Tue, Dec 19, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 05 | 013 | 111 | 129 |
| TBL | 314 | 210 | 19 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Haydn Fleury · Bat, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 17:10TBLTyler MotteGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 19:46TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 1:36TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Nick Perbix, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 12:13TBLHaydn FleuryAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brandon Hagel · Slap, 0.03 xG0–5
- P3 7:53TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.28 xG0–6
- P3 15:57STLJustin FaulkPPAssists: Jake Neighbours, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:27STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:03TBLAlex Barré-Boulet: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:33STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00TBLTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:25STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:31TBLMichael Eyssimont: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 14:31TBLErik Cernak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:31STLTyler Tucker: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:31STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:31TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:31TBLMichael Eyssimont: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Sundqvist – Kapanen7:36
xG 0.59–0.11 (85%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Schenn – Hayes – Neighbours7:25
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- MacEachern – Toropchenko – McGing7:33
xG 0.14–0.22 (40%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas10:00
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug15:16
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Scandella – Tucker9:51
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Leddy – Parayko16:46
xG 0.16–0.97 (15%)attempts 13–26goals 0–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Cirelli – Hagel10:19
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Paul – Point12:22
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Glendening – Eyssimont – Jeannot7:46
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Motte – Sheary – Barré-Boulet6:47
xG 0.02–0.38 (5%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Perbix12:31
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 7–15goals 3–0
- Raddysh – Sergachev3:36
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Perbix4:12
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).