Tue, Dec 19, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Edmonton Oilers 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 09 | 015 | 131 |
| NYI | 09 | 39 | 03 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Warren Foegele, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 2:39NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 11:30NYIBo HorvatPPGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 14:10NYISimon HolmstromSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:30NYIJulien Gauthier: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:05EDMSam Gagner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:01EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:41NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:43NYIRobert Bortuzzo: Holding2 min
- P2 19:40EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:24NYIPierre Engvall: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:52EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hyman – McDavid9:47
xG 0.64–0.00 (99%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:18
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Janmark – McLeod6:15
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Ryan – Hamblin4:26
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais8:14
xG 0.81–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse11:56
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard15:16
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom3:07
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal8:38
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching4:47
xG 0.09–0.51 (14%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall10:17
xG 0.02–0.71 (2%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Dobson – Romanov14:19
xG 0.44–0.79 (36%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Bolduc9:58
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 1–16goals 0–1
- Reilly – Aho11:36
xG 0.21–0.90 (19%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).