Wed, Dec 20, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Detroit Red Wings 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 17 | 112 | 228 |
| WPG | 112 | 318 | 111 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:38WPGNeal PionkAssists: Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, David Gustafsson · Tip-in, 0.00 xG0–1
- P2 1:44DETOlli MaattaAssists: Patrick Kane, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:41WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 10:50WPGAxel Jonsson-FjallbyGWGAssists: Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 16:10WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Cole Perfetti, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 8:41DETPatrick KaneAssists: Dylan Larkin, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 15:12WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–5
Penalties (2)
- P3 4:48WPGNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:39WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFischer – Sprong – Czarnik6:32
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Kane – Larkin – DeBrincat2:42
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat10:55
xG 0.48–0.39 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Compher – Rasmussen – Veleno10:17
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider3:51
xG 0.49–0.06 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere11:05
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Maatta – Walman5:52
xG 0.01–0.06 (11%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Ehlers – Vilardi14:49
xG 1.01–0.53 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 2–1
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti11:58
xG 0.84–0.63 (57%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron – Gustafsson10:04
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton11:47
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey21:56
xG 1.77–0.97 (65%)attempts 27–23goals 3–0
- Schmidt – Samberg12:51
xG 0.91–0.68 (57%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk17:07
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).