Wed, Dec 20, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 19 | 116 | 00 | 232 |
| WSH | 114 | 112 | 08 | 12 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:56WSHHendrix LapierreAssists: Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 1:03NYIHudson FaschingAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:12WSHJoel EdmundsonAssists: Anthony Mantha, Hendrix Lapierre · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 12:02NYIAnders LeeUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–2
- OT 1:41WSHDylan StromePPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Snap, 0.97 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:57WSHBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:32NYIPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:36NYIKyle Palmieri: Holding2 min
- P2 9:45WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:00WSHNick Jensen: High sticking2 min
- OT 0:43NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom6:17
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall9:23
xG 0.47–0.36 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching5:49
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal11:57
xG 0.60–0.72 (46%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Bolduc7:42
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov14:30
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Aho – Romanov2:00
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn11:59
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Mantha – Protas – Lapierre7:09
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Kuznetsov – Phillips – Miroshnichenko7:54
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome9:43
xG 0.42–0.70 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin2:41
xG 0.12–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry13:21
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Jensen – Edmundson14:07
xG 0.29–0.38 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).