Thu, Dec 21, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 111 | 05 | 16 | 332 |
| CBJ | 07 | 116 | 111 | 02 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:24WSHAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 15:18CBJCole SillingerAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 17:24WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Aliaksei Protas, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 12:49CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 4:07WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:20WSHBeck Malenstyn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:02CBJDavid Jiricek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:41CBJAlexandre Texier: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:42CBJElvis Merzlikins: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Voronkov won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome10:10
xG 0.80–0.53 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Mantha – Protas – Lapierre9:22
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Phillips – Miroshnichenko8:09
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn14:29
xG 0.11–0.61 (15%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin4:08
xG 0.65–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin2:15
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Edmundson2:44
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Danforth – Fantilli14:11
xG 0.95–0.26 (79%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Bemstrom – Johnson – Sillinger11:59
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov13:35
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Gaunce – Texier4:59
xG 0.30–0.64 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Werenski17:28
xG 1.32–0.15 (90%)attempts 28–10goals 2–0
- Bean – Jiricek15:36
xG 0.91–0.05 (95%)attempts 20–3goals 0–0
- Provorov – Peeke15:15
xG 0.15–1.09 (12%)attempts 9–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).