Thu, Dec 21, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 04 | 114 | 06 | 00 | 0 | 124 |
| PIT | 15 | 09 | 08 | 03 | 1 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:51PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 14:52CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jack Drury, Jaccob Slavin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PIT Rickard Rakell stopped
- 2. CAR Stefan Noesen stopped
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 5. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 6. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:51CARStefan Noesen: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:03PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:40CARStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:25CARJack Drury: Holding2 min
- P2 17:13CARBrett Pesce: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:18PITErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- OT 3:46CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Necas – Kotkaniemi9:34
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Svechnikov – Drury9:24
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Noesen – Aho – Jarvis9:14
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook12:27
xG 0.03–0.33 (7%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce15:51
xG 0.42–0.20 (67%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin13:49
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield12:37
xG 0.35–0.53 (40%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel12:29
xG 0.48–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Harkins – Acciari – O'Connor3:18
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Eller – O'Connor – Zohorna4:59
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari5:29
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Ludvig8:00
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Graves14:36
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson15:53
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).