Thu, Dec 21, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Montréal Canadiens 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 03 | 112 | 28 | 02 | 325 |
| MIN | 213 | 04 | 15 | 12 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:19MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:54MINMarco RossiAssists: Zach Bogosian, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:17MTLDavid SavardAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 1:09MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 8:57MINBrock FaberPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 16:57MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: David Savard, Mike Matheson · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 4:55MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Brock Faber · Snap, 0.29 xG3–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 12:47MTLDavid Savard: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:54MTLBrendan Gallagher: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 6:07MINVinni Lettieri: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:52MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min
- P2 9:39MINMarco Rossi: Instigator2 min
- P2 9:39MINMarco Rossi: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:39MTLKaiden Guhle: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:39MINMarco Rossi: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 12:22MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:42MINZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:42MINZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:07MTLMike Matheson: Interference2 min
- P2 19:30MINMarcus Foligno: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:50MTLJoel Armia: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:33MTLCole Caufield: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský9:42
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Stephens – Ylonen – Heineman4:06
xG 0.00–0.13 (2%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Dvorak9:54
xG 0.02–0.38 (5%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Anderson – Monahan – Evans10:39
xG 0.08–0.46 (16%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Guhle – Barron14:44
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Struble9:40
xG 0.08–0.30 (21%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson14:25
xG 0.43–0.71 (38%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Foligno – Rossi3:39
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Kaprizov – Rossi2:28
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy9:38
xG 0.22–0.16 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Gaudreau – Kaprizov2:19
xG 0.07–0.05 (57%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Mermis5:13
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian10:51
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Middleton2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).