Thu, Dec 21, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 3, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 125 | 17 | 344 |
| ANA | 013 | 09 | 03 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24CGYNick DeSimoneGWGAssists: Connor Zary, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 7:49CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Yegor Sharangovich · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 18:00CGYA.J. GreerENAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:51ANAFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:52CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:33ANAMason McTavish: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:31CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:28ANAAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:56ANARadko Gudas: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:26CGYNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:33ANALeo Carlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:09CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:56ANASam Carrick: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:56ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:56CGYA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Huberdeau8:52
xG 0.64–0.10 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary9:23
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka2:24
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich9:00
xG 0.01–0.74 (1%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – DeSimone8:57
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin15:44
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson13:17
xG 0.75–0.70 (52%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Strome – Vatrano9:31
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Jones – Leason – McTavish5:18
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Silfverberg – Carrick – McGinn3:33
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Terry – McTavish2:27
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Drysdale15:35
xG 0.86–0.50 (63%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe8:56
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov10:48
xG 0.17–0.66 (21%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).