Fri, Dec 22, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Boston Bruins 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 06 | 07 | 112 | 125 |
| WPG | 110 | 211 | 212 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:52WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 11:17WPGGabriel VilardiGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 17:41WPGNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P3 1:25WPGAdam LowryAssists: Mason Appleton, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 14:22BOSBrandon CarloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
- P3 19:41WPGNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:16WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:49BOSParker Wotherspoon: Holding2 min
- P2 15:46BOSJames van Riemsdyk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 17:16BOSParker Wotherspoon: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P3 8:52WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P3 18:35BOSDanton Heinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beecher won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – DeBrusk – Geekie10:41
xG 1.05–0.52 (67%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Frederic11:49
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Zacha12:12
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 16–5goals 0–2
- Steen – Lauko – Beecher10:29
xG 0.30–0.54 (35%)attempts 6–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlo – Wotherspoon4:12
xG 0.72–0.10 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo7:12
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Wotherspoon5:47
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:57
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti10:11
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron – Gustafsson7:04
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Vilardi14:00
xG 0.89–1.42 (38%)attempts 21–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey18:07
xG 1.10–0.44 (71%)attempts 24–13goals 2–0
- Schmidt – Samberg11:11
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk14:37
xG 0.21–0.95 (18%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).