Fri, Dec 22, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Montréal Canadiens 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 311 | 210 | 528 |
| CHI | 19 | 16 | 06 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:56CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Connor Bedard, Isaak Phillips · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 3:43CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Colin Blackwell, Louis Crevier · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 4:20MTLMitchell StephensAssists: Mike Matheson, David Savard · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 15:02MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Sean Monahan, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 17:33MTLJuraj SlafkovskýGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jesse Ylonen · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 13:11MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 18:04MTLDavid SavardENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:42CHIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:02MTLJoel Armia: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:25CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:25CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:25MTLJayden Struble: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:32CHIConnor Bedard: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Monahan – Evans13:31
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:00
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Armia – Dvorak9:28
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stephens – Ylonen – Heineman6:21
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Barron14:41
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Kovacevic – Struble12:20
xG 0.56–0.29 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Savard – Guhle2:07
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Beauvillier – Entwistle – Johnson8:17
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Foligno – Blackwell – Dickinson9:25
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
- Johnson – Raddysh – Kurashev10:02
xG 0.53–0.77 (41%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Donato – Reichel – Bedard11:48
xG 0.21–0.68 (23%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Zaitsev – Korchinski15:59
xG 0.64–0.71 (48%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Murphy – Phillips14:34
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Tinordi – Crevier12:50
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 12–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).