Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 19 | 09 | 224 |
| NJD | 110 | 013 | 213 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:22DETPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:43NJDTimo MeierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 10:33DETShayne GostisbehereAssists: Daniel Sprong, Christian Fischer · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 2:46NJDTimo MeierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 12:45NJDTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:09NJDCurtis Lazar: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:58DETLucas Raymond: Interference2 min
- P2 5:15DETSimon Edvinsson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:25DETDaniel Sprong: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:31NJDJesper Bratt: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:31DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:53NJDErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:32DETLucas Raymond: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:35NJDOndrej Palat: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Larkin – DeBrincat12:54
xG 0.59–0.02 (97%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Sprong4:01
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Compher – Veleno – Raymond9:13
xG 0.21–0.33 (38%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Rasmussen8:42
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot8:56
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Edvinsson2:10
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Walman2:07
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – McLeod – Mercer12:10
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – Hughes7:09
xG 0.21–0.21 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Palat – Lazar – Hischier10:17
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Haula – Bastian – Holtz3:37
xG 0.04–0.22 (15%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Bahl10:42
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Marino – Hughes11:21
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Marino – Bahl2:19
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).