Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Seattle Kraken 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 210 | 03 | 19 | 322 |
| ANA | 014 | 19 | 111 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:26SEAOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Jared McCann, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:24SEAVince DunnAssists: Matty Beniers, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 6:18ANAFrank VatranoPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 8:25SEATomas TatarGWGAssists: Vince Dunn, Matty Beniers · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 14:01ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Troy Terry · Cradle, 0.42 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:46ANAMason McTavish: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:30SEABrandon Tanev: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 5:39SEAWill Borgen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestShore – Yamamoto – Kartye5:45
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Tatar – Beniers13:13
xG 0.63–0.83 (43%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
- Wennberg – McCann – Tanev9:31
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen9:44
xG 0.23–0.55 (29%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen14:29
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Evans13:57
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn17:41
xG 0.48–1.36 (26%)attempts 19–26goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Terry – Zegras12:49
xG 0.78–0.24 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Henrique – Jones – Leason10:36
xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish13:55
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Carrick – Johnston5:09
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Mintyukov5:23
xG 0.94–0.06 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- LaCombe – Drysdale12:59
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Fowler – Vaakanainen13:02
xG 0.80–0.78 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).